GOP debates can’t escape being pseudo-events

In the British monarchy, it used to be said that the queen’s job was to give birth to two sons — an heir and a spare.

In the Republican campaign, the seven candidates in Wednesday’s debate were all running to be the spare.

That’s an odd aspiration — to be the person available in case the preferred person isn’t. It lends almost everything the candidates do an inescapable air of being not quite real. At the debate, the familiar trappings were present — red, white and blue bunting, lights, cameras, hordes of press, hangers-on and opposition spokespeople, including Gov. Gavin Newsom — but the tension of a nomination up for grabs was notably absent.

Donald Trump decided before the first debate of the season to skip appearing on stage with the pretenders to his throne. His poll standing among Republican voters, already high, went higher. So after the second debate, he did what he typically does and doubled down. His campaign issued a statement calling on the Republican National Committee to cancel the remaining debates, labeling them “boring and inconsequential” and predicting that “nothing that was said will change the dynamics of the primary contest.”

Self-serving, of course. But probably true.

The RNC likely won’t heed Trump’s call. They’ve already set out qualifying criteria for a third debate to be held early in November. The planned location, Miami, was reportedly chosen in an effort — almost surely futile — to entice Trump to join.

AdImpact, a leading data firm, estimates that around 11 million people watched the latest debate, down from 14 million who watched the first debate. Much to the dismay of some party leaders and major donors, there’s as yet no evidence that a third debate will do what the first two notably have not — turn Trump’s renomination walk into an actual contest.

What we’ve learned about the candidates so far

There’s one central reason that none of Trump’s rivals has gained traction, and it doesn’t have much to do with their ability as candidates or the positions they’ve taken. What’s done them all in is Republican perceptions of President Biden‘s weakness.

Back in December and January, when memories of a disappointing November midterm election still stung Republicans, many in the party worried about Trump’s unpopularity. Interest in an alternative ran high, much to the benefit of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But as the polls continue to show Trump and Biden in a close race, a majority of Republican voters have lost their fear that Trump would lose and, along with it, interest in an alternative.

Polls 14 months ahead of an election have almost no ability to predict outcomes, so about the most that anyone can know now is that in a closely divided country, a close election is a good bet.

But in politics, perception shapes reality, and right now, the perception of Biden as weak has pushed the Republican debates to the edge of irrelevance.

That being said, the debates have told us several things about the individual candidates as well as the shape of the party.

Roughly speaking, the field can be divided in three.

The traditionalists

One group contains three relatively traditional, conservative Republicans of the sort that ran the party from President Reagan‘s election in 1980 until Trump’s nomination in 2016 — former Vice President Mike Pence and two former governors, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Chris Christie of New Jersey.

The three differ in several respects: Pence represents the social conservative wing of Reagan’s coalition and has made a national abortion ban a top priority. On Wednesday, he added a call to ban gender-affirming medical care for transgender Americans. Haley, more of a fiscal conservative, has tried to soft-peddle the abortion issue. She has chided Trump for the huge increase in the federal debt that took place during his tenure. Christie represents the Northeastern, blue-collar wing of Reaganism — tough on crime, opposed to public employee unions, and more moderate on culture-war issues.

All three, however, have stuck with Reaganite orthodoxy on foreign policy — deeply suspicious of Russia, in favor of a leading U.S. role in NATO and strongly backing U.S. aid to Ukraine.

The MAGA-ites

On the other side, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, the multimillionaire businessman, represent the party’s now-dominant Trump wing. That comes through in their rhetorical styles, full of denunciations of “wokeness” and “elites,” their reticence about criticizing Trump, a tendency toward performative statements rather than detailed policy proposals and their foreign-policy remarks, which focus on perceived threats from China and are notably warmer toward Russia.

The... less relevant

Of the remaining two candidates, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has mostly tried to introduce himself and has such a low level of support that he probably won’t qualify for the third debate. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is also at risk of not qualifying — he hasn’t hit the threshold of 4% in a national poll — although his more prominent performance Wednesday night might boost him over the bar. He has tried to maintain ties to the Trumpist wing of the party while siding with the traditionalists on some issues, notably Ukraine.

The big Ukraine divide

Russia’s invasion of its neighbor has generated some of the most heated exchanges in the first and second debates. It’s an issue that has become steadily more divisive among Republicans.

About three hours before the debate started, the House voted on a measure proposed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is among Trump’s most fervent backers, which would have blocked further security aid to Ukraine. It lost, 93-339, but all 93 votes in favor came from Republicans, and the total was 25 votes more than Gaetz got when he proposed a similar measure in July.

That anti-Ukraine vote could grow. The majority of Republican members of Congress remain in the Reaganite wing of the party on national security issues, but the Trump position has clearly taken hold among the rank and file. In a poll released this week by YouGov and the Economist magazine, 60% of Republicans said they wanted aid to Ukraine cut, and 29% said aid should be eliminated entirely.

And, of course, that’s the position Trump backs. The former president has avoided spelling out his views in detail, but has made clear his sympathy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hostility toward Kyiv.

Whatever the candidates may say in their debates, the fact that Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for renomination means that opposition to Ukraine aid will soon be the official Republican Party stance.

The candidate debates may not be relevant, but both at home and abroad, the stakes could not be higher.

L.A. Times debate coverage

If you missed the debate or want a refresher, here are Noah Bierman’s five takeaways from Wednesday night’s Republican presidential debate

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