Dodgers Dugout: Here’s why the Dodgers will beat Arizona

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and today we look at the NLDS.

Well, after spring training, 162 games and another week of waiting, the postseason finally is upon us. The Dodgers could be playing until the first week of November, then again their season could end Wednesday.

Their opponent in the NLDS will be a familiar one: the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Dodgers played Arizona 13 times this season, winning eight.

Really, what could go wrong? The Dodgers are playing an NL West rival that they dominated during the season in a best-of-five series. I mean, easy victory. Just look at postseason history. Last year ... wait a minute ... the Dodgers played an NL West rival (San Diego) that they dominated during the season (went 14-5) and lost to them in a best-of-five division series.

Uh-oh.

In 2021, the Dodgers played NL West rival San Francisco (Giants went 10-9 against Dodgers in season) and won the NLDS, 3-2.

In 2020, the Dodgers played NL West rival San Diego (Dodgers went 6-4 against Padres in season) and won the NLDS, 3-0.

Maybe next season MLB should just cut to the chase and have the first- and second-place teams in the NL West play each other in the NLDS.

So, let’s compare the Dodgers and Arizona and see how they match up.

Record
Dodgers: 100-62
Arizona: 84-78

In March/April
Dodgers: 16-13
Arizona: 16-13

In May
Dodgers: 18-10
Arizona: 17-10

In June
Dodgers: 12-12
Arizona: 16-11

In July
Dodgers: 13-10
Arizona: 8-16

In August
Dodgers: 24-5
Arizona: 12-15

In Sept./Oct.
Dodgers: 17-12
Arizona: 15-13

In one-run games
Dodgers: 16-15
Arizona: 21-21

In blowouts (win/lose by 5+)
Dodgers: 45-19
Arizona: 18-20

Batting

Runs per game
Dodgers: 5.59 (2nd in majors)
Arizona: 4.60 (14th)
MLB average: 4.62

Batting average
Dodgers: .257 (7th)
Arizona: .250 (13th)
MLB average: .248

Average with runners in scoring position
Dodgers: .276 (3rd)
Arizona: .247 (21st)
MLB average: .256

Two outs and runners in scoring position
Dodgers: .257 (6th)
Arizona: .223 (23rd)
MLB average: .238

On-base percentage
Dodgers: .340 (2nd)
Arizona: .322 (14th)
MLB average: .320

Slugging percentage
Dodgers: .455 (2nd)
Arizona: .408 (17th)
MLB average: .414

Doubles
Dodgers: 303 (5th)
Arizona: 274 (15th)
MLB average: 274

Triples
Arizona: 44 (1st)
Dodgers: 20 (20th)
MLB average: 24

Home runs
Dodgers: 249 (2nd)
Arizona: 166 (22nd)
MLB average: 196

Walks
Dodgers: 644 (2nd)
Arizona: 540 (15th)
MLB average: 527

Strikeouts
Dodgers: 1,359 (20th)
Arizona: 1,247 (27th)
MLB average: 1,395

Stolen bases
Arizona: 166 (2nd)
Dodgers: 105 (19th)
MLB average: 117

Pitching

ERA
Dodgers: 4.06 (13th)
Arizona: 4.47 (20th)
MLB average: 4.33

Rotation ERA
Dodgers: 4.57 (20th)
Arizona: 4.67 (21st)
MLB average: 4.45

Bullpen ERA
Dodgers: 3.42 (3rd)
Arizona: 4.22 (18th)
MLB average: 4.17

Shutouts
Dodgers: 15 (t4th)
Arizona: 9 (t17th)
MLB average: 10

Saves
Dodgers: 44 (t12th)
Arizona: 44 (t12th)
MLB average: 41

Blown saves
Arizona: 27 (t12th)
Dodgers: 17 (29th)
MLB average: 25

Percent of inherited runners scored
Dodgers, 26.1% (3rd best)
Arizona, 30.2% (10th)
MLB average, 32.4%

Walks
Arizona: 525 (15th most)
Dodgers: 454 (26th)
MLB average: 527

Strikeouts
Dodgers: 1,388 (17th)
Arizona: 1,351 (23rd)
MLB average: 1,395

Fielding

Defensive efficiency rating
Dodgers: 70.9% (2nd)
Arizona: 69.5% (13th)
MLB average: 69.1%
Note: DER is the percentage of balls in play turned into outs.

Errors
Dodgers: 76 (10th fewest)
Arizona: 56 (1st)
MLB average: 84

As you can see, the Dodgers are ahead in just about everything except the speed categories.

Let’s take a look at how individual players fared against the other team this season. We will focus on players who might be on the postseason roster, or in Arizona’s case, were on the wild-card roster:

Dodgers vs. Arizona
Batting
Freddie Freeman, .389/.431/.667, 6 doubles, 3 homers, 6 RBIs
Jason Heyward, .375/.444/.792, 1 double, 3 homers, 7 RBIs
Will Smith, .351/.432/.568, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 7 RBIs
James Outman, .306/.447/.639, 4 homers, 9 RBIs
J.D. Martinez, .300/.324/.633, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 7 RBIs
David Peralta, .256/.275/.308, 2 doubles, 6 RBIs
Mookie Betts, .250/.390/.458, 4 doubles, 2 homers, 5 RBIs
Chris Taylor, .231/.323/.423, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 4 RBIs
Max Muncy, .200/.365/.325, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 7 RBIs
Kiké Hernández, .182/.250/.273, 2 for 11
Miguel Rojas, .138/.219/.172, 1 double, 1 RBI
Austin Barnes, .067/.067/.067, 1 for 15
Amed Rosario, 0 for 6
Team, .268/.366/.481, 27 doubles, 2 triple, 20 homers, 5.53 runs per game

Pitching
Shelby Miller, 0.00 ERA, 3 IP, 0 hits, 3 walks, 3 Ks
Ryan Brasier, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 1 hit, 2 Ks
Joe Kelly, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 walks, 2 Ks
Victor González, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 1 K
Ryan Pepiot, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 3 Ks
Ryan Yarbrough, 0.00 ERA, 1 save, 4 IP, 4 hits, 4 Ks
Bobby Miller, 1-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 11 hits, 6 walks, 8 Ks
Clayton Kershaw, 2-1, 3.38 ERA, 17 IP, 14 hits, 5 walks, 18 Ks
Caleb Ferguson, 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1 save, 5 IP, 5 hits, 3 Ks
Evan Phillips, 4.15 ERA, 3 saves, 4.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 1 K
Brusdar Graterol, 0-1, 7.36 ERA, 3.2 IP, 8 hits, 3 Ks
Alex Vesia, 0-1, 16.20 ERA, 3.1 IP, 9 hits, 1 walk, 2 Ks
Michael Grove, 0-1, 24.30 ERA, 3.1 IP, 12 hits, 1 walk, 4 Ks
Team, 8-5, 3.71 ERA, 6 saves, 114 IP, 107 hits, 26 walks, 94 Ks

Arizona vs, Dodgers

Batting

Pavin Smith, .500/.600/1.000, 2 for 4
Geraldo Perdomo, .333/.429/.583, 3 doubles, 1 homer, 5 RBIs
Evan Longoria, .313/.353/.625, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 1 RBI
Gabriel Moreno, .267/.281/.500, 4 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBIs
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., .244/.306/.333, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 5 RBIs
Alek Thomas, .235/.297/.353, 2 triples, 3 RBIs
Ketel Marte, .234/.280/.404, 5 doubles, 1 homer, 3 RBIs
Christian Walker, .234/.275/.319, 1 double, 1 homer, 5 RBIs
Tommy Pham, .222/.300/.278, 1 double, 1 RBI
Jake McCarthy, .207/.258/.310, 1 double, 1 triple, 2 RBIs
Jose Herrera, .200/.385/.200, 2 for 10
Corbin Carroll, .196/.226/.33, 1 double, 2 homers, 4 RBIs
Jace Peterson, .091/.167/.091, 1 for 11
Emmanuel Rivera, .000/.000/.000, 0 for 2
Team, 3.62 runs per game, .247/.297/.383, 27 doubles, 4 triples, 8 homers

Note: McCarthy had a last-minute injury and did not play in the wild-card round. If he is able to play in the NLDS, he probably will replace Peterson.

Pitching
Miguel Castro, 1.50 ERA, 6 IP, 4 hits, 5 walks, 6 Ks
Bryce Jarvis, 2.45 ERA, 3.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 K
Joe Mantiply, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 2 hits, 1 K
Luis Frías, 3.00 ERA, 3 IP, 3 hits, 2 Ks
Merrill Kelly, 0-2, 3.98 ERA, 20.1 IP, 27 hits, 13 walks, 11 Ks
Ryne Nelson, 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 6 IP, 4 hits, 2 walks, 3 Ks
Kevin Ginkel, 6.75 ERA, 5.1 IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 6 Ks
Bradon Pfaadt, 0-2, 9.35 ERA, 8.2 IP, 14 hits, 4 walks, 9 Ks
Zac Gallen, 9.90 ERA, 10 IP, 15 hits, 6 walks, 10 Ks
Team, 5-8, 5.46 ERA, 112 IP, 114 hits, 67 walks, 94 Ks

There were three pitchers on the wild-card roster whom the Dodgers didn’t face this season: Paul Sewald, Andrew Saalfrank and Ryan Thompson.

Sewald is their closer, acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline. He went 0-1 with 13 saves and a 3.57 ERA in 20 games. He had 27 baserunners in 17.2 innings, so he’s not a shutdown closer. Thompson pitched very well, giving up only six hits and a walk in 13 innings with nine strikeouts and an ERA of 0.69. Saalfrank, a left-hander, was even better, pitching 10-1/3 shutout innings, giving up seven hits and four walks while striking out six.

Arizona recap

The Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers five times, but mostly when the Dodgers were struggling in the first half. They played each other five times in August, and the Dodgers won all five in convincing fashion. Arizona lost its last four games of the season before defeating Milwaukee in the wild-card round in two straight.

Arizona’s best hitters are Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. Most of the rest of the offense was below average. The Diamondbacks are fast though. They need to be aggressive and take the extra base whenever possible.

The Dodgers are better than Arizona offensively. Their bullpen is better. Their starting pitching is better, though Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are good pitchers who should start four of the five games, if needed. The Dodgers’ third starter is a question mark, but so is Arizona’s, as the Dodgers have owned Brandon Pfaadt this season. The road to the NLCS looks clear for the Dodgers. Which reminds me of the opening scene of “Raiders of the Lost Ark” when Indiana Jones, with his guide Satipo, apparently have avoided all the booby traps and are steps away from the golden idol.

Satipo: “Let us hurry. There is nothing to fear here.”
Indy: “That’s what scares me.”

The playoffs are all about the unexpected hero. The Mickey Hatchers of the world. If Arizona can find a couple of those guys, and if Clayton Kershaw can’t go more than four innings or Bobby Miller suffers from postseason jitters, the series could go sour in a hurry. And after seeing the Dodgers flame out of the playoffs almost every season since this newsletter began, there’s always this nagging doubt. However, when studying the teams, the prediction seems obvious.

Prediction: Dodgers in four.

Kershaw speaks

In a news conference Friday, Clayton Kershaw had some interesting things to say about his sometimes shaky postseason history.

“I kind of said this today a little bit with the guys, but I think the one thing that has switched for me a little bit is you use those nerves [pitching in the postseason] — but where are the nerves coming from?” Kershaw said. “I think at times maybe in the past I had a fear of failure and didn’t want to go out there and fail. I think now it’s just a lot more positive.

“The nerves are from an excitement to get to pitch in the playoffs, to get to be a part of it, to be in this moment that a lot of people in the game don’t get to be in. I think that’s where the nerves come from now. And I think that’s a better place.”

And when did that change take place?

“I don’t know. I think when you get beat down enough you start saying, ‘Screw it.’ And I think that’s kind of what happened over the years. … I think you can’t hold it too tight. You’ve just got to go out there and play and pitch. This year was a little bit up in the air for a minute,” he said, referring to the shoulder injury that landed him on the injured list. “So it makes you all the more grateful to be here.”

You can watch Kershaw’s news conference here.

Today’s probables

Arizona vs. Clayton Kershaw, lifetime

Corbin Carroll, .571/.571/1.429, 4 for 7, 2 homers, 3 RBIs
Christian Walker, .294/.333/.735, 10 for 34, 5 homers, 8 RBIs, 12 Ks
Gabriel Moreno, .286/.286/.429, 2 for 7, 1 double
Evan Longoria, .282/.33/.410, 11 for 39, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 14 Ks
Ketel Marte, .256/.273/.488, 11 for 32, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 4 RBIs, 8 Ks
Geraldo Perdomo, .250/.250/.250, 1 for 4
Emmanuel Rivera, .167/.167/.167, 1 for 6
Tommy Pham, .056/.150/.056, 1 for 18, 7 Ks
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., .000/.125/.000, 0 for 7
Alek Thomas, .000/.200/.000, 0 for 4
Jace Peterson, .000/.000/.000, 0 for 4
Pavin Smith, .000/.000/.000, 0 for 3

Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly, lifetime

Amed Rosario, .833/.833/.833, 5 for 6, 1 RBI
James Outman, .444/.400/.444, 4 for 9, 2 RBIs
Max Muncy, .412/.500/.618, 13 for 34, 4 doubles, 1 homer, 3 RBIs
David Peralta, .400/.455/.500, 4 for 10, 1 double, 2 RBIs
Jason Heyward, .385/.467/.462, 5 for 13, 1 double, 2 RBIs
Will Smith, .323/.389/.484, 10 for 31, 2 doubles, 1 homer, 2 RBIs
Chris Taylor, .313/.371/.500, 10 for 32, 3 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBIs
Freddie Freeman, .296/.387/.593, 8 for 27, 5 doubles, 1 homer, 1 RBI
Miguel Rojas, .286/.286/.500, 4 for 14, 1 homer, 4 RBIs
Mookie Betts, .250/.351/.563, 8 for 32, 1 double, 3 homers, 3 RBIs
Austin Barnes, .167/.167/.167, 1 for 6
J.D. Martinez, .143/.250/.286, 1 for 7, 1 double, 1 RBI
Kiké Hernández, .100/.182/.100, 2 for 20

NLDS schedule

Saturday, Arizona (Merrill Kelly, 12-8, 3.29 ERA) at Dodgers (*Clayton Kershaw, 13-5, 2.46 ERA), 6:20 p.m.
Monday, Arizona (Zac Gallen, 17-9, 3.47 ERA) at Dodgers (Bobby Miller, 11-4, 3.76 ERA), 6 p.m
Wednesday at Arizona, TBA
*Thursday at Arizona, TBA
*Saturday, Oct. 14, at Dodgers, TBA

*-if necessary

All games will be on TBS.

In case you missed it

Plaschke: Read it and leap, the Dodgers will win the 2023 World Series championship

Mass transit to Dodger Stadium? Get to Union Station. Why the Hollywood Bowl offers a better way

Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Diamondbacks in the NLDS

On the outs? Dodgers have shown they’re never out of an inning

Dodgers roundtable: In a season of surprises, can they pull off the biggest surprise of all?

Eighteen outs: Can the Dodgers’ patchwork pitching staff sustain a deep playoff run?

Julio Urías was a hero and likely Dodgers Game 1 starter. Now, it’s as if he never existed

And finally

Vin Scully and special guests throw out the first pitch. Watch and listen here.